Category: Prediction

Is the PC Dying?

I just read an interesting article about the dispute between Microsoft and Apple about types of PC [1]. Steve Jobs predicted a switch from desktop PCs to portable devices, while Steve Ballmer of Microsoft claimed that the iPad is just a new PC. Defining a PC I think that the defining characteristic of the IBM […]


Mail Server Security

I predict that over the course of the next 10 years there will be more security problems discovered in Sendmail than in Postfix and Qmail combined. I predict that the Sendmail problems will be greater in number and severity. I also predict that today’s versions of Postfix and Qmail will still be usable in 10 […]

Prediction Security

Predictions for 2009 and Beyond

Stewart has made some predictions for the future of computing [1]. He predicts that within 2 years the majority of consumer machines will be laptops and have SSD (not rotational media). I predict that by the end of next year more than half of all new consumer machines that are being sold will be laptops […]


Bill Joy

Some time ago Bill Joy (who is famous among other things for being a co-founder of Sun) [1] wrote an article for Wired magazine titled “Why the future doesn’t need us” [2]. He wrote many sensible things but unfortunately focussed on the negative issues and didn’t receive a good response. On reading it today I […]


How Many Singularities?

There is a lot of discussion and speculation about The Singularity. The term seems to be defined by Ray Kurzweil’s book “The Singularity Is Near” [1] which focuses on a near-future technological singularity defined by significant increases in medical science (life extension and methods to increase mental capacity) and an accelerating rate of scientific advance. […]


My Prediction for the iPhone

I have previously written about how I refused an offer of a free iPhone [1] (largely due to it’s closed architecture). The first Google Android phone has just been announced, the TechCrunch review is interesting – while the built-in keyboard is a nice feature the main thing that stands out is the open platform [2]. […]

Liberty Prediction

I’m Skeptical about Robotic Nanotech

There has been a lot of fear-mongering about nanotech. The idea is that little robots will eat people (or maybe eat things that we depend on such as essential food crops). It’s unfortunate that fear-mongering has replaced thought and there seems to have been little serious discussion about the issues. If (as some people believe) […]

Politics Prediction

Future Versions of Windows

There is currently a lot of speculation about the future of Windows following the massive failure of Vista in the market. One theory that is being discussed is that Microsoft will cease kernel development and adopt a Unix kernel in the same way that Apple adopted a BSD based kernel. I predict that MS in […]